The Economy of China

 

Abstract This paper examines empirically the relationship between economic growth and the Chinese government’s economic polices by analyzing the quantities of economic performance. The result shows that the optimization of economic polices push the economic growth up, and to the financial reform. Moreover, this article talks about our economic goals on the basis of the national economic growth and how to develop a healthy economic performance. In addition , we also analyze the current economic situation focusing on the current problems, striking to find keys to them and improve our living standard. Materials Recourse: Angus.(2008); Shi and Li.(2008); Zhou Muzhi.(2008); et. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn ; http://english.gov.cn. http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/ Chapter I  Introduction China’s economy is huge and expanding rapidly. In the last 30 years the rate of Chinese economic growth has been almost miraculous, averaging 8% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum. The economy has grown more than 10 times during that period, with Chinese GDP reaching 3.42 trillion US dollars by 2007. In Purchasing Power Parity GDP, China already has the biggest economy after the United States. Most analysts project China to become the largest economy in the world this century using all measures of GDP. This paper analyses the Chinese economy in recent years from a perspective view. Chapter II takes a closer look at the Chinese economic policies and targets that set by Chinese government, including the  fiscal, monetary, trading and economic growth policies adopted by China government in the past 10 years. Chapter Ⅲ identifies the overview of Chinese economy, that is, Chinese performance in the economy in the past years. Chapter Ⅳ makes out some suggestions about how to  soundly develop the economy in the future. Chapter Ⅴ concludes our general ideas that our economic aim is to build a harmonious and moderately prosperous society. To achieve the goal, the Government will address its development challenges through a balanced strategy that aims to build a harmonious society and a socialist market economy that is energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.   2.1 The monetary policies The Chinese government’s monetary policy instruments applied by the PBC(People's Bank of China ) include reserve requirement ratio, central bank base interest rate, rediscounting, central bank lending, open market operation and other policy instruments specified by the State Council. The objective of the monetary policy is to maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby promote economic growth.In 1998, the national bank credit quota was scrapped and the PBC in theory has had to rely on adjusting its own balance sheet to manage the monetary base. Since then, the PBC has tried to develop the influence of the interest rate. The tools for influencing money creation in China are now mostly present. However, they are not yet as effective as they need to be to enable the PBC to run an effective monetary policy. Consider the three main ones: OMO, discount rate and reserve requirements. Open market operations in China began in October 1998, when the PBC started cash trading of bonds. In comparison to repos, bills can be traded, which improves liquidity, and regular bill auctions allow an interest rate benchmark to be formed. The PBC has developed the primary bill market to include 52 dealers, including banks securities companies, insurers, rural credit co-operatives etc. PBC bill auctions use both volume- and rate-based bidding. The PBC is reported to have a dedicated OMO trading room managed by the PBC’s Monetary Policy Division.Box 1 below. At first the PBC only engaged in one OMO a week. In the early days, cash bond trading was the most common means of adjusting the monetary base. After a short period, this was replaced by bond-based repo transactions since these had the advantage vis-à-vis bonds of affecting money market rates (and not impacting on the bond market). On June 25th 2002 the central bank started using reverse MoF- bond-based repos to cope with new FX inflows. However, by September 2002, the PBC had run out of bonds upon which to make repo transactions. To resolve this, the central bank determined that all outstanding repo contracts issued between June 26th and September 24th would not be honoured as such, but would be converted into a new instrument, PBC bills. The conversion resulted in bills worth CNY193.8bn (USD23.3bn), which appears on the central bank’s balance sheet in September 2002. The first auction of ‘new’ central bank bills took place in May 2003 and since then the market has grown substantially. From February 25th 2003, the central bank has engaged in two (or more) OMOs a week.It has also developed a liquidity management system, which now provides a daily update on banks’ liquidity positions.Table 1 summarises the PBC’s OMOs since 1998 (China Financial Stability Analysis Group,2005). Table 1: Open market operations  Released base  Withdrawn base  Net base  money effect  5-12/98  176  107  +70  1999  708  526  +181  2000  447  573  -127  2001  825  873  -47  2002  185  305  -120  2003  1,024  1,223  -198 2004  1,218  1,997  -669 Source: PBC Monetary Policy Reports, Author, Shui and Sun (2003) Second, the discount rate, the rate at which the PBC lends into the money market. On March 25th 2004, the PBC introduced ‘floating rate’ central bank rediscount lending. In other words, the PBC now has right to set the discount rate without having to seek State Council permission each time. At the same time, the PBC added 63 bps to the benchmark discount rate for financial institutions, and 27 bps to the standard rate to take the central bank’s core rediscount rate to 3.24%. Floating rate rediscount lending will be phased in over three years for the rural credit co-operatives （Financial Stability Analysis Group, 2007). Third, the reserve requirement. The PBC reduced this ratio in the late 1990s as table 2 shows, in an attempt to stimulate credit growth and to give the banks more flexibility in how they managed their funds. At the same time, the central bank has steadily reduced the rates it pays on reserves, both required and excess, as table 3 shows, in an attempt to encourage banks to lend into the money markets rather than place their excess funds on deposit with the central bank. On April 25th 2004, the PBC adopted a differentiated reserve ratio system, meaning that second-tier banks, with capital adequacy ratios or asset quality etc. below certain standards would have to hold 8% reserves (compared to the standard level of 7.5%). Rural and urban credit co-operative were exempted from this rule for the time being. Ma and McCauley (2004) note that by mid-2004, 38 second-tier banks were subject to the new higher level, affecting about 10% of deposits in the system (Financial Market Department of the PBC,2006). Table 2. China’s banks’ required reserve ratio, %  RRR % 1985-86  10  1987  12  1988-98  13  1998  8  1999-2002  6  2003  7  2004  7.5  2005        13 2006 8.5 2007 13.5 Source: People's Bank of China Table 3. Interest rates paid on required reserves, %  1998.03.25 5.22  1998.07.01 3.51  1998.12.07 3.24  1999.06.10 2.07  2002.02.21 1.89 2003.12.21  1.89 (with new, lower, rate on excess reserves)  2004.10.09 5.22 2006.04.28 5.4 2006.08.19 5.58 2007.03.18 5.67 2007.05.19 5.85 2007.07.21 6.03 2007.08.22 6.21 2007.09.15 6.48 2007.12.21 6.57 Source: People's Bank of China Note: Before December 2003, there was only one interest rate, 1.89%, for both required and excess reserves. After this date, however, while this rate was maintained for required reserves, excess reserves were paid a new, lower rate of 1.62%. On March 17th, the rate was lowered again to 0.99%（The PBC Shanghai Head Office, 2006). 2.2  The fiscal policy A fiscal policy is when the government changes taxation and increases government spending. Through an expansionary fiscal policy it aims at increasing the amount of disposable income people will have. This income will, depending on the marginal propensity to consume, be spent in the economy. The result of this will be that aggregate demand will increase thus eliminating the deflationary gap which is caused by either growth or unemployment. Moreover fiscal policy aims at increasing government spending. If government spending increases the investment in the economy which will be translated as an increase of investment in the economy and which will in turn close the deflationary gap. Through a contractionary demand side policy the government aims at decreasing the amount of disposable income and thus reducing consumption within the economy which will in turn lead in a reduction of aggregate demand. In terms of government spending the government will reduce government spending so as to reduce investment and t hus close the inflationary gap. discretionary fiscalpolicy should focus on long run issues, such as tax reform and social security reform (Ji and Lin, 2008). From the following figures you can see China's economy performed well in the first half according to the economic indicators.    Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China Take 2007 for example, According to the numbers, China's GDP grew 11.4%, retail sales grew 16.8%, fixed asset investments grew 24.8% and foreign trade exports grew 23.5%. Economists point out that the turnaround in China's economy shows that China's active fiscal policy is working. The fiscal policy has undoubtedly expanded domestic demand. China's fiscal expenditures continued to increase in the first half along with the growing economy. Fiscal earnings totaled 624 billion yuan, up 94.6 billion from the same period last year or 17.9%. Fiscal expenditures totaled 583.8 billion yuan, up 119 billion yuan from the same period last year or 25.6% (The World Bank Group, 2008). China's active fiscal policy spured economic growth by using greater fiscal spending. In recent years, faced with problems such as lagging domestic demand, increased unemployment, an irrational economic structure and a slow increase in farmers' income, the CCP and State Council decided to adopt this policy to spur investments and increase consumer spending and exports. In the second half of 1998, due to the Asian financial crisis and lack of domestic demand, the Chinese authorities issued 100 billion yuan worth of Treasury bonds to fund infrastructure construction. In addition to the 50 billion yuan in bonds set aside in the 1999 preliminary budget, another 60 billion yuan long-term debt was issued to increase investments. At the same time, the tax policy to increase investments and expand exports increased the income of the lower class urban residents. In the past two years, the state has used treasury bonds to increase infrastructure construction, support technological renovations in enterprises and spur economic growth. According to the central party's economic conferences held towards the end of last year, China continued implement its active fiscal policy. Early this year, 100 billion yuan in Treasury bonds was penciled into this year's budget. The state continued 2000's tax policy and income adjustment policy. Foreign firms investing in the central and western regions of China enjoyed a 15% cut in income tax. Foreign investors undergoing restructuring was not allowed to receive tax drawbacks. And, 238 transportation and car "administration fees" imposed by local governments were eliminated (Wang, 2008). Increasing investments in infrastructure not only caused the production and prices of resources such as concrete, steel, nonferrous metals, it has pushed up the prices of consumer industrial goods. The elimination of taxes on fixed asset investments, such as business tax on real estate, contract tax, value-added tax on land, has stimulated the growth of China's real estate industry. Many of the government's tax policy has tried to encourage the development of high tech startups. Billions of bonds were used to provide interest rate subsidies on loans so large- and mid-size enterprises could upgrade their technology (Angus，2008) .   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2.3  The trading policy Trade volume is measured in relation to the size of the domestic economy, and is shown as three values: the value of exports as a percentage of GDP, the value of imports as a percentage of GDP, and the combined value of both imports and exports as a percentage of GDP. Trade volume shows how much the economy depends on foreign trade. A nation turns abroad for anything it needs that it cannot generate domestically. Exports reflect dependence on foreign markets, while imports reflect dependence on foreign-made goods and services. High levels of trade volume reflect vigorous engagement with the global economy.The Current Account Balance [CAB] is a record of money flowing into a national economy through foreign trade, minus money flowing out through foreign trade. It is shown as a percentage of GDP. For more detail, see the Glossary. Source: International Monetary Fund.When a nation's CAB is positive, foreign trade is pouring money into its economy, making more available for investment, consumption and taxation. When the CAB is negative, foreign trade is draining money out of its economy, diminishing the stock of wealth available for these activities (Shi and Li , 2008).The world is rapidly changing. Goods, technology, investments and jobs are moving across borders faster than ever before. Globalisation is fundamentally changing the nature of commerce for countries, companies and citizens the world over, and presents major challenges.In response to this change, Chinese government has adopted appropriate trading policies to keep the current account balance.These are the different trade policies adopted according to the different situations: 1990-1997: Foreign investment grows tenfold between 1990 and 1997. Despite unwieldy contractual and legal framework, China's billion-plus customers lure many investors, especially from ethnic Chinese in areas near Hong Kong and Taiwan (Mnkiw, N. Goregory, 1997). 1999: China's global trade totals $353 billion; its trade surplus is $36 billion. China's primary trading partners are Japan, Taiwan, the United States, South Korea, Hong Kong, Germany, Singapore, Russia, and the Netherlands. In November, the United States and China arrive at a bilateral market-access agreement that paves the way for China's accession to the World Trade Organization. 2000: China reaches a bilateral WTO agreement with the European Union and other trade partners and begins work on a multilateral WTO accession package. To increase exports, China encourages the formation of factories that assemble imported components into consumer goods for export. The U.S. approves permanent trade relations with China, and President Clinton signs the China Trade Relations Act of 2000. 2001-2003: In 2001 China serves as the Asia Pacific Economic Group's (APEC) chair; Shanghai hosts the annual APEC leaders meeting. After the 2001 World Trade Organization summit in Qatar, China becomes a full member of the WTO. Many tariffs and regulations are streamlined or ended, but foreign investors still face procedural obstacles. Trading partners complain that the Chinese currency is undervalued.        2004-2005：According to the report (Financial Market Department of the PBC ,2006), China’s foreign trade maintained the rapid growth since the second half of 2002, and climbed from the fifth largest country in foreign trade in 2002 to the fourth, which further consolidated its position as a large trading country, and made more contribution to the development of China’s national economy. Moreover, there was still a large space left for China’s exports to grow rapidly in 2005. However, the complicated and constant-changing international situations pose a potential threat to the world economy, and the keep rising prices of the domestic upstream products would obstruct exports growth. Encouraged by the domestic investment demands, China’s imports would continue to go high, but the growth rate will mainly rest with the development trends of domestic investment and the force and effect of macro-economic control. 2006-2007: In 2006, China's foreign trade stood at 1.76 trillion U.S. dollars, up 23.6 percent year-on-year, ranking third in the world. China's imports and exports of goods likely amounted to 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year, a growth of 20 percent over the year-earlier level in 2007.External trade has continued to grow rapidly since the beginning of the year, the report says. Foreign sales of machinery, electronics, textiles and clothing and footwear posted sustained growth. Trade with major partners, including the European Union, the United States and Japan, has increased continuously (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Department of Economics,2008).    Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2.4 The economic growth policy The economic Growth is measured as the annual per cent change in the value of the gross domestic product after taking account of inflation. A positive economic growth rate means more of everything than before: more production, more demand for labor, and more wealth available for consumption, taxation and investment. A negative growth rate means the economy is shrinking. Jobs are more scarce and do not pay as well as in boom times. These are the economic growth in China from 1998 to 2003: 1998-2000: By 1999, with 1.25 billion people and a GDP of $3,800 per capita, China's is the fastest growing economy in the world, and also the second largest after the U.S. But the country remains poor, lacking the monetary and fiscal controls to manage its vast economy. The government turns to banks to provide failing SOEs loans, but they are not repaid. The banking system is threatened. 2001-2003: After China joins the WTO, foreign investment surges to a record high. Strong growth masks internal disparities between cities and rural areas, coastal and interior regions. Cuts in tariffs and rules streamline business, but the huge state-owned sector remains deeply troubled and extremely hard to reform. In 2003 the spread of the deadly SARS virus has a severe impact on China's economy. (Ji and Lin, 2008) 2004-2007: The following years continued to witness the rapid economic rise of China, with an emphasis on both quality and speed. In the first half of the 21st century, rural areas remained to be the "strategic citadel" of expanding domestic demand and economic growth. In the face of energy and resource challenges, China plans to lay the groundwork of a resource-efficient society in 30 years. Other priorities include: building a favourable environment for international exchange, persisting in the path of "bringing-in, going global" and advancing international competition and cooperation based on mutual benefit and win-win situations. Moreover, to pursue independent innovation, develop private-run businesses, and engage the initiative of both local government and enterprises to enhance China's economic vibrancy and sustainable growth（http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/）. 2.5 The economic targets China adopts the "five-year-plan" strategy for economic development. The 9th Five-Year Plan (1996-2000) was outstandingly successful, and the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005) mapped out the first plan for the new century, setting these main targets: -- Sustaining fairly rapid growth, strategic restructuring, improving the quality and benefits of economic growth so as to lay firm foundations for doubling the 2000 GDP by 2010; substantial perfection of the socialist market economy and putting state-owned enterprises on a modern enterprise footing, thus allowing greater participation in international cooperation and competition (Liu and Zhang ,2008). -- GDP to reach some 12,500 billion yuan, and per capita GDP 9,400 yuan by 2005 (at 2000 prices assuming annual economic growth of around 7 percent). -- Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure to sharpen China's competitive edge. By 2005, the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries will account for 13 percent, 51 percent and 36 percent, respectively, of GDP; employing 44 percent, 23 percent and 33 percent, respectively, of the labor force. Further improvement  to infrastructure; increased urbanization and bringing the widening development disparity between regions under effective control. Most of these targets have already been achieved ahead of schedule. At present, the government is implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Chapter Ⅲ  Overview of China economy Following the Chinese Communist Party's Third Plenum, held in October 2003, Chinese legislators unveiled several proposed amendments to the state constitution. One of the most significant was a proposal to provide protection for private property rights. Legislators also indicated there would be a new emphasis on certain aspects of overall government economic policy, including efforts to reduce unemployment (now in the 8-10% range in urban areas), to rebalance income distribution between urban and rural regions, and to maintain economic growth while protecting the environment and improving social equity. The National People's Congress approved the amendments when it met in March 2004 (Financial Stability Analysis Group,2007). The Fifth Plenum in October 2005 approved the 11th Five-Year Economic Program (2006-2010) aimed at building a "harmonious society" through more balanced wealth distribution and improved education, medical care, and social security. On March 2006, the National People's Congress approved the 11th Five-Year Program. The plan called for a relatively conservative 45% increase in GDP and a 20% reduction in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 2010.China's economy grew at an average rate of 10% per year during the period 1990-2004, the highest growth rate in the world. China's GDP grew 10.0% in 2003, 10.1%, in 2004, and even faster 10.4% in 2005 despite attempts by the government to cool the economy. China's total trade in 2006 surpassed $1.76 trillion, making China the world's third-largest trading nation after the U.S. and Germany. Such high growth is necessary if China is to generate the 15 million jobs needed annually — roughly the size of Ecuador or Cambodia — to employ new entrants into the job market. (Zhou，2008) 4.1 Inflation Inflation is measured as the annual percent change in the prices of goods deemed necessary for life in that country. The specific goods included in this "market basket" change only rarely, so this measure reflects fluctuation in purchasing power of the national currency. Source: International Monetary Fund. Producers in turn may raise their selling prices to cover these increases, scale back production to check their costs (resulting in lay-offs), or fail to invest in future production. During the winter of 2007-2008, inflation ran about 7% on an annual basis, rising to 8.7% in statistics for February 2008, released in March, 2008. The food and fuel sectors were major problem areas, with meat and fuel posing special difficulties. Shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel developed in the fall of 2007 due to reluctance of refineries to produce fuel at low prices set by the state. These prices were slightly increased in November, 2007 with fuel selling for $2.65 a gallon, still slightly below world prices. Price controls were in effect on numerous basic products and services, but were ineffective with food, prices of which were rising at an annual rate of 18.2% in November, 2007 (Beijing University of Chinese National Accounts and Economic Growth Research Center,2008).The problem of inflation has caused concern at the highest levels of the Chinese government. On January 9, 2008 the government of China issued the following statement on its official website: "The Chinese government decided on Wednesday to take further measures to stabilize market prices and increase the severity of punishments for those guilty of driving up prices through hoarding or cheating." Pork is an important part of the Chinese economy with a per capita consumption of a fifth of a pound per day. The worldwide rise in the price of animal feed associated with increased production of ethanol from corn resulted in steep rises in pork prices in China in 2007. Increased cost of production interacted badly with increased demand resulting from rapidly rising wages. The state responded by subsidizing pork prices for students and the urban poor and called for increased production. Release of pork from the nation's strategic pork reserve was considered.  By January 2008, the inflation rate rose to 7.1%, which BBC News described as the highest inflation rate since 1997, due to the winter storms that month. China's inflation rate jumped to a new decade high of 8.7 percent in February 2008 after severe winter storms disrupted the economy and worsened food shortages, the government said March 11, 2008. Throughout the summer and fall, however, inflation fell again to a low of 6,6% in October, 2008 (China Daily, 2008).Well, in the last few years China inflation changes much. From 2000 to 2002, the rate of inflation have decreased year by year. The reasons for this phenomenon are complex , but what we can sure is that the development of our economy is unstable. Until 2006, we have witnessed a more steady developing economy, and our country have found new ways to control inflation. The following table shows the rate of China annual inflation in recent years. Year % of change 2000 0.4 2001 -0.7 2002 -0.8 2003 1.2 2004 3.9 2005 1.8 2006 1.5 Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics 4.2 Unemployment Unemployment is measured annually as the percent of the labor force that cannot find a job. The labor force comprises adults who want to work. Uncounted are those who do not seek employment, or who have become discouraged enough to stop looking. Source: International Monetary Fund. Economies are powered by consumer spending and savings investment. Unemployed workers earn no wages; they spend little and save less. Economies with high levels of unemployment are stalled economies. China’s economy is likely to experience stagflation. Department of Labor and Social Security show that in the past five years, China's urban new jobs each year are more than 9,000,000 people in 2007 to reach 12,040,000 people, creating an active employment policy since the implementation of the best level; a total of 25,000,000 state-owned and collective enterprises laid-off workers Were re-employed; the registered urban unemployment rate from the 4.3 percent decline year by year, by the end of 2007 to 4.0 percent. In reality, the Chinese government has been inclined to strengthen structural policy while weakening total quantity policy. This round of tightening can be said to be selective “spot kill” by treating different things differently. For instance, different industries and enterprises are treated differently on a selective basis. Such control is structural control but the government does not say whether to contract or expand the total demand (Zhou, 2008). Such control means may sharpen the focus of macro-control but it also contains administrative means that may hurt the normal functioning of the market economy.  This is why some people allege that China’s market economic operation has retreated as a result of this round of macro-control. To expand total demand will expand demand and stimulate consumption. In this case, structural adjustment will not work and as a result an opposite policy direction must be adopted. In my opinion, the government should no longer employ any administrative control means in either case. China’s economy is inflation-prone in the short run but consequently unemployment-stricken in the long run. Therefore, monetary policy can no longer be further tightened because there is no room for tightening, as the statutory deposit reserve ratio has reached 17.5% as of today. When inflation raged at approximately 20% in 1994, the statutory reserve ratio was raised only to 13% or so. The room for further tightening is therefore very limited. (Zhao,2002) 4.3 Government expenditure Government spending is the annual value of all government spending on goods and services, expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product.Government spends in such large amounts that it has the power to stabilize commodity markets and otherwise shore up unsteady parts of the economy. By the same token, government is not very nimble; it responds slowly to market signals. As a result, its remedies may be untimely, even unhelpful. Economies that show high dependence on government spending may be less able to capitalize on emerging opportunities. Well, the table below well describing our increasing expenditures. As far as I know, comparing to old days, our living standard had improved much. To satisfy people’ need, our government makes great endeavors like strengthening the infrastructure experiment. As technology and education plays a big role on country-development, government put part of money on science and technology. Under this condition, the revenue is affected more or less. Obviously, it contributes to increase the revenue. The increasing expenditures  (10 000 MOP) Items 2003  2004  2005  2006  2007① Current Expenditure        Payroll 286983 295920 325074 343365 378572   Goods and Services 57259 66366 77837 87397 141465   Interest -  -  -  -  -   Current Transfers 525171 559490 712599 818346r 859539   Other Current Expenditure 4807 4970 5687 8033 94826 Capital Expenditure        Investments 236169 339416 433827 435491 351594   Capital Transfers 2651 12133 6304 8800 9941   Financial Transactions 33217 40140 13886 31037 49689   Other Capital Expenditure -  -  -  -  - Autonomous Agencies 425040 451866 543212 1002507r - Total  1571297 1770301 2118426 2734976r 1885626 Note: ①Figures of 2007 are subject to revision as more data become available. Chapter Ⅳ Suggestions Currently with the global financial crisis rippling through the United States and Europe, China's once supercharged economic growth has slowed sharply, dropping from 12.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007 to about 9 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to national statistics. How can China survive? There no certain answer. My suggestions are as follows: First, we should adopt some easing monetary policies, active fiscal policies and upgrading industry sector standards, and make out some plans on taxes, credit and foreign trades well. Second, aside from active fiscal policies, the government should cut taxes to lower enterprises' costs and alleviate people's financial burdens, encouraging investment and consumption, the two main engines of the country's economic growth. Third, we need a reasonable allocation of the present market resources in order to promote the upgrade of China's economic structure. Furthermore, under the present economic situation, massive investment in infrastructure construction can stimulate the declining domestic demand and stabilize investment. Under the control of appropriate policy, in my view, economic growth rate will be still high.In a near future, GDP growth rate will reach 10.5 percent. I think we should strengthen various macro-economic policies’ portfolio management to create conditions for prosperity for the elimination of overheating pressures and slowing down the current round of economic cycle patterns. When it comes to Chinese economic problems, we can see the problem that serious imbalances exist behind the spectacular trade performance, high investment flows, and high GDP growth. High numbers of non-performing loans weigh down the state-run banking system. Inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are still a drag on growth, despite announced efforts to reform, sell, merge, or close the vast majority of SOEs. Social and economic indicators have improved since reforms were launched, but rising inequality is evident between the more highly developed coastal provinces and the less developed, poorer inland regions. According to World Bank estimates in 2007, around 300 million people in China — mostly in rural areas of the lagging inland provinces — still lived in poverty, on consumption of less than $1 a day.In conclusion, it’s time  for our government  to take measures to improve these bad conditions. Our great nation’s goal include  a marked improvement in quality of life, with 5 percent annual growth in the disposable income of urban residents and in the net income of rural residents; keeping the registered urban unemployment rate stable at around 5 percent; maintaining generally stable prices and basically balancing international revenue and expenditure, and so on (Xinhua, 2008).But in reality ,we have to face these problems, and struggle ways to improve them. When we talk about unemployment, we may frown immediately. I want to tell us that there is much for us to do rather than complaining. We need knowledge to arm us, being equal to the good job. For the unemployment, administrative control can be used only as a means of expediency rather than a long-term solution because it has side effects on resource allocation and market efficiency. This structural control is a means of control adopted willy-nilly by the government when it feels at a loss as to whether total demand is expanding or contracting. If policy makers assert that total demand outstrips supply, they will focus on curtailing total demand. I have the idea that structural inflation adjustment makes scant sense and the future policy direction will be fully tightening. This is also a policy orientation meriting further observation. Of course, it is also possible that policy makers hold unemployment to blame for economic recession. Another problem is inflation, I have my own points on this topic. This gentle inflation reflects the adjusts of the increasing price of labor productivity, rather than everything in short supply in markets. What we can foresee is the period for increasing price is long. China supported a number of factors need to maintain a long-term moderate price increases through to the structure of a key transition period. There are a number of factors support China to maintain a long-term moderate price which increases under the structure of a key transition period. High levels of inflation reflect a volatile economy in which money does not hold its value for long. Workers require higher wages to cover rising costs, and are disinclined to save. So we must think up a idea to resist inflation. In addition, when we take a careful look at the fiscal policy, we still find many disadvantages. In addition, the government has invested large amounts of capital and passed favored treatment policies so the state owned enterprises can pull themselves out of the red. In the second half of last year, SOE profits rose 4.4-fold compared with the same period two years ago. While government spending on major projects increased, its expenditures on social welfare rose 1.95-fold during the first half. Government expenditures on public security, technology, education and agricultural technology has also increased. As we all can see these investments will undoubtedly create favorable conditions for SOE reforms, economic structure adjustments and improving the market system. China continued down the path it set out in 2000. It maintained its active fiscal policy in the second half. It followed the direction set by the State Council and issue Treasury bonds at the appropriate time to raise funds for construction projects. It increased supervision and management over the use of funds raised from selling bonds the government has invested large amounts of capital and passed favored treatment policies so the state owned enterprises can pull themselves out of the red. In the second half of last year, SOE profits rose 4.4-fold compared with the same period two years ago. While government spending on major projects increased, its expenditures on social welfare rose 1.95-fold during the first half. In my view, government expenditures on public security, technology, education and agricultural technology should be increased. These investments will undoubtedly create favorable conditions for SOE reforms, economic structure adjustments and improving the market system. China continued down the path it set out in 2000. I think it should maintain its active fiscal policy in the second half and still follow the direction set by the State Council and issue Treasury bonds at the appropriate time to raise funds for construction projects. As a result, our supervision and management over the use of funds raised from selling bonds. Chapter Ⅴ  Conclusion These are the specific situation of Chinese economy. From this paper you can grasp a general idea of the Chinese economy. Nevertheless, the PRC is still a lower-middle-income country, with many millions of people living on less than $1 a day. Reducing poverty remains a daunting challenge, as does raising the welfare of millions living just above poverty. Sustaining growth will be vital for this, and will not be possible without addressing environmental degradation, growing inequality, and the strain on resources. Technologies and practices will need to be improved to international standards. Multilateral development assistance can continue to play a useful role in addressing these challenges through partnership with the PRC.The goal of the Government’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP), 2006–2010, is building a harmonious and moderately prosperous (xiao kang) society. This goal has been affirmed by the 17th Party Congress. To achieve the goal, the Government will address its development challenges through a balanced strategy that aims to build a harmonious society and a socialist market economy that is energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. The FYP sets out various measures with qualitative and quantitative targets. In meeting these targets, the market will play an important role, with the Government providing the enabling environment. A more direct role for the Government is envisaged in public health, compulsory education, social safety nets, and projects involving the poor. However, China has a bright prospect still get a long way to go. Appendices economic indicators 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GDP (US$Billions) 1,640 1,931 2,243 2,644 3,250 GDP Growth (%) 10.0% 10.% 10.4% 10.7% 11.4% Inflation (%) -0.8% 1.2% 4.1% 1.8% 1.5% Unemployment (%) 10.1% 9.8% 9.0% 4.2% 4.0% Foreign Exchange & Gold Reserves (US$Billions) - 412.7 609.9 825.6 1,534 Mobile Phone Users 65,000,000 269,000,000 269,000,000 393,400,000 461,100,000 Internet Users 45,800,000 94,000,000 94,000,000 111,000,000 162,000,000 Sources: CIA World Factbook, IMF   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China   Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China References Angus Maidisen. (2008). Chinese economic performance in the long run.Shanghai: Shanghai People's Publishing House. Beijing University of Chinese National Accounts and Economic Growth Research Center.(2008). China economic growth report. Beijing: China's economy Press. China Daily(2008). World fortune 500 CEOS talk about China. Beijing: New World Press. China Financial Stability Analysis Group.(2005). China financial stability report 2005. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Department of Economics.(2008). China economic research report. Beijing: Economic Management Publishing House. Financial Market Department of the PBC(People's Bank of China ).(2006). China financial market development report 2005. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House. Financial Stability Analysis Group.(2007). China financial stability report 2006. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House. Ji Baocheng,Lin Gang.(2008). On the China’s economics of Construction and development. Beijing: Economic Science Press. Liu Shucheng,Zhang Liancheng,Zhang Ping.(2008). China's economic growth and the economic cycle. Beijing: China's economy Press. Shi Jinchuan,Li Jianqin.(2008). Contemporary economy of China.Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Publishing House. 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Retrieved on 1st August ,2002 from: http://business.sohu.com/. 本文实证考察经济增长和中国政府的经济政策，通过分析经济表现的数量之间的关系。结果表明，优化经济政策，推动经济增长和金融改革。此外，这篇文章谈国家的经济增长和如何开发一个健康的经济表现的基础上，我们的经济目标。此外，我们还分析了当前的经济形势，重点对当前问题，打击，寻找钥匙给他们，并提高我们的生活水平。 材料追索权：安格斯（2008年）;施和李（2008年）;：周模汁。（2008年）等。 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn http://english.gov.cn。 http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/ 第一章绪论 中国的经济是巨大的和迅速扩大。在过去的30年中，中国经济增长的速度一直近乎神奇的平均8％的增长，国内生产总值（GDP）每年。经济在此期间增长了10倍以上，到2007年中国国内生产总值达到34200亿美元。在国内生产总值的购买力平价，中国已经拥有最大的经济体，仅次于美国。多数分析师预测，中国成为世界最大的经济体，这个世纪使用国内生产总值的一切措施。本文分析了中国经济近年来的透视图。第二章需要仔细看看中国的经济政策，由中国政府设定的目标，包括财政，货币，贸易和经济增长的政策，在过去的10年，中国政府通过。 Ⅲ标识章介绍中国经济，这是在过去几年，中国在经济表现。 Ⅳ章有关如何健康发展的经济在未来的一些建议。 Ⅴ章总结了我们，我们的经济目标是建立一个和谐小康社会的总体思路。为了实现这一目标，政府将解决其发展的挑战，通过一个平衡的战略，旨在构建和谐社会和社会主义市场经济，节能和环保。   2.1货币政策 申请由中国人民银行（中国人民银行）中国政府的货币政策工具包括存款准备金率，​​央行基准利率，再贴现，中央银行贷款，公开市场操作，由国务院指定的其他政策工具。货币政策目标是保持货币价值的稳定，从而促进1998年经济增长，国家银行信贷配额被废弃，不得不依赖理论中国人民银行调整自己的资产负债表管理货币基础。此后，中国人民银行一直试图制定利率的影响。影响中国货币创造的工具，现在大多存在。然而，他们没有作为有效的，因为他们需要的是使运行一个有效的货币政策，中国人民银行。考虑三个主要的奥妙，折现率和存款准备金。在中国的公开市场操作1998年10月开始，，中国人民银行开始时现金交易的债券。票据回购相比，可以交易，从而提高流动性，并允许利率基准要形成定期拍卖法案。中国人民银行已经开发出了初级票据市场，包括52个经销商，包括银行，证券公司，保险公司，农村信用社合作社等PBC法案拍卖使用两个音量和基于速率的招标。中国人民银行报告有一个专门的奥妙交易室管理由中国人民银行货币政策以下Division.Box 1。起初只从事中国人民银行本周一个奥妙。在早期的日子里，现金保证金交易是最常见的手段调节基础货币。经过一段时间后，这取代了基于债券回购交易，因为这些影响货币市场利率（不影响债券市场）的优势相对于债券。 2002年6月25日央行开始使用反向的的财政部债券型回购，以应付新的外汇流入。然而，2002年9月，中国人民银行已用完的债券回购交易，并据此做出。为了解决这个问题，央行确定这样不会兑现，6月26日和9月24日之间发行的所有未完成的回购合约，但将被转换成一个新的工具，央行票据。该转换导致票据值得CNY193.8bn的（USD23.3bn）于2002年9月，央行的资产负债表上出现。 '新'的央行票据于2003年5月发生的第一次拍卖，并自那时以来，市场已经大幅增长。从2003年2月25日，央行已从事两个（或更多）的公开市场操作一个week.It还制定了流动性管理系统，该系统现在提供了一个每日更新的总结自1998年以来，中国人民银行公开市场操作对银行的流动性positions.Table 1（中国金融稳定分析小组，2005）。 表1：公开市场操作 发布基地撤回基地基地净额赚钱效应 5-12/98 176 107 +70 1999 708 526 181 2000 447 573 -127 2001 825 873 -47 2002 185 305 -120 2003 1,024 1,223 -198 2004 1,218 1,997 -669 资料来源：中国人民银行货币政策执行报告“，作者，水和Sun（2003） 其次，折扣率，中国人民银行借到钱市场的速率。 2004年3月25日，中国人民银行出台了“浮动利率”央行再贴现贷款。换句话说，人民银行现在有权利设定的折现率，而无需征求国务院许可每次。与此同时，人民银行新增63个基点基准折现率，为金融机构和27个基点，至央行的核心再贴现利率至3.24％的标准税率。浮动利率再贴现贷款在三年内将分阶段在农村信贷合作社（金融稳定分析小组，2007）。 第三，存款准备金。中国人民银行降低这个比例如表2所示，在20世纪90年代后期，以刺激信贷增长和给予银行更多的灵活性，他们是如何管理他们的资金。与此同时，央行已逐步减少储备，包括法定和超额支付率，如表3所示，为了鼓励银行放贷进入货币市场，而非其多余的资金存放与中央银行。 2004年4月25日，人民银行采取了差别准备金率制度，这意味着二线银行，资本充足率或资产低于一定标准的质量等必须持有8％的储量（7.5％的标准水平相比） 。城市和农村信用合作获豁免暂时从这个规则。马和麦考（2004）注意到，2004年年中，38个二线银行须到新的更高水平，影响系统中的存款（中国人民银行金融市场司，2006年）的10％左右。 表2中。中国的银行存款准备金率，​​％ 存款准备金率％ 1985-86 10 1987年12 1988-98 13 1998年8 1999年至2002年6 2003年7 2004 7.5 2005 13 2006 8.5 2007 13.5 资料来源：中国人民银行 表3中。法定存款准备金支付的利率，％ 1998年3月25日5.22 1998.07.01 3.51 1998年12月7日3.24 1999年6月10日2.07 2002年2月21日1.89 2003年12月21日1.89（与新的，较低的超额储备率） 2004.10.09 5.22 2006.04.28 5.4 2006.08.19 5.58 2007.03.18 5.67 2007.05.19 5.85 2007.07.21 6.03 2007.08.22 6.21 2007.09.1​​5 6.48 2007.12.21 6.57 资料来源：中国人民银行 注：2003年12月之前，只有一个利率，1.89％，法定和超额储备。然而，在此日期之后，而这个速度保持所需的储备，超额储备支付一个新的，较低的利率为1.62％。 3月17日，利率再次被下调至0.99％（中国人民银行上海总部，2006年）。 2.2财政政策 财政政策是政府改变税收和增加政府开支。通过扩张性的财政政策，它的目的是增加可支配收入的数额人都会有。这部分收入将取决于边际消费倾向，消费，在经济度过。这样做的结果将是总需求增加，从而消除了通货紧缩的差距，这是造成增长或失业。此外，财政政策旨在增加政府支出。如果政府支出增加的投资在经济，增加了在经济和投资，这将反过来关闭通货紧缩缺口将被翻译成。通过紧缩需求方面的政策，政府的目标是在量减少的可支配收入，从而减少消费在经济又会导致总需求减少。在政府支出方面，政府将减少政府开支，以减少投资和吨HUS关闭的通胀差距。酌情fiscalpolicy应着眼于长远来看问题，如税制改革和社会保障制度改革（吉和林，2008）。 从下面的数字，你可以看到，中国经济表现良好，上半年经济指标。   资料来源：国家统计局，中国   资料来源：国家统计局，中国 以2007年为例，根据数字，中国的国内生产总值同比增长11.4％，零售销售同比增长16.8％，固定资产投资同比增长24.8％，外贸出口同比增长23.5％。经济学家指出，中国经济的好转表明，中国积极的财政政策工作。财政政策无疑是扩大了内需。中国的财政支出继续增加上半年，随着经济增长。从去年同期17.9％的财政收入总额为624十亿亿元，同比增长94.6十亿。财政支出累计完成583.8亿元，同比增长119十亿人民币从去年同期的25.6％（世界银行集团，2008）。中国积极的财政政策spured通过使用更大的财政支出的经济增长。近年来，面临着落后内需，失业增加，经济结构不合理，农民收入增长缓慢的问题，例如，中国共产党和国务院决定采取这一政策，以刺激投资和增加消费支出和出口。在1998年下半年，由于亚洲金融危机和国内需求不足，中国政府发行国债100亿万元的基础设施建设提供资金。除了50亿元人民币债券在1999年的初步预算预留，另外60亿元的长期发行债务，增加投资。与此同时，税收政策，增加投资，扩大出口增加低下阶层城镇居民的收入。在过去两年中，国家利用国债，加大基础设施建设，支持企业技术改造，拉动经济增长。据中央党校举行的经济会议对去年年底，中国继续实施积极的财政政策。今年年初到今年的财政预算，100亿元人民币国债铅笔。国家继续2000年的税收政策和收入调整政策。在中国的中部和西部地区投资的外国企业享受所得税15％的削减。外国投资者进行重组是不允许接收税务缺点。 238交通和汽车的“管理费”，由地方政府征收被淘汰（王，2008）。 增加基础设施投资不仅造成了资源，如混凝土，钢材，有色金属的生产和价格，推高了消费类工业产品的价格。在固定资产投资，房地产，契税，土地增值税，营业税等税收的消除刺激了中国房地产行业的增长。许多政府的税收政策尝试，以鼓励发展的高科技初创公司。 10亿债券被用来提供贷款利率补贴，大型和中等规模的企业可以提升自己的技术（安格斯，2008）。   资料来源：国家统计局，中国 2.3贸易政策 贸易额衡量国内经济的大小关系，并表现为三个值：出口值占GDP的比重，进口价值占国内生产总值的百分比，以及进口和出口的总价值作为国内生产总值的百分比。贸易额显示多少经济对外贸的依赖。一个民族的任何需要，它不能产生国内转向国外。出口反映了对国外市场的依赖，而进口反映依赖于外国制造的商品和服务。高水平的贸易额反映积极地参与全球经济。目前的帐户余额[CAB]是创纪录的资金流入一个国家经济通过外贸，减去资金流出通过外贸。它表现为国内生产总值的百分比。如需详细资料，请参阅“词汇表”。资料来源：国际货币基金组织Fund.When一个国家的驾驶室为正，外贸注入资金到其经济，使更多的可用于投资，消费和税收。当驾驶室为负，外贸抽走资金其经济，减少财富存量为这些活动提供（施，李，2008）。世界正在迅速改变。货物，技术，投资和就业机会，是跨越国界比以往任何时候都更快。全球化从根本上改变世界各地的国家，企业和公民的电子商务的本质，并提出了重大的挑战。应对这种变化，中国政府已经采取适当的贸易政策，到保持经常账户balance.These，是采用了不同的贸易政策根据不同的情况： 1990年至1997年：外国投资增长了十倍，1990年和1997年之间。尽管笨重的合同和法律框架，中国的十亿加客户吸引很多投资者，尤其是从民族的中国香港和台湾地区（Mnkiw，N. Goregory，1997）附近地区。 1999年：中国的全球贸易总额为353亿美元，贸易顺差为36十亿美元。中国的主要贸易伙伴是日本，台湾，美国，韩国，香港，德国，新加坡，俄罗斯和荷兰。在11月，美国和中国的到达铺平了道路，为中国加入世界贸易组织的双边市场准入协议。 2000年：中国在多边入世包达到世界贸易组织的双边协议，与欧盟和其他贸易伙伴，并开始工作。中国要增加出口，鼓励进口元器件组装的工厂，出口到消费品的形成。美国批准中国永久贸易关系，美国总统克林顿签署2000年中国贸易关系法“。 2001-2003年：2001年，中国作为亚太经济集团（APEC）的椅子;上海举办一年一度的APEC领导人会议。 2001年世界贸易组织首脑会议在卡塔尔之后，中国成为世贸组织的正式成员。许多关税和法规是精简或结束，但外国投资者仍面临程序上的障碍。贸易伙伴抱怨，中国的货币被低估。 2004-2005年：据报告（中国人民银行金融市场司，2006年），中国的对外贸易继续保持快速增长2002年下半年以来，攀升至第五大国的外贸在2002年的第四位，进一步巩固了其作为一个贸易大国的地位，中国国民经济的发展作出更大的贡献。此外，仍然是一个大的空间留给中国的出口增长迅速，2005年。然而，复杂和不断变化的国际形势，世界经济构成潜在威胁，并保持国内上游产品价格的上涨将阻碍出口增长。鼓励国内投资需求，中国的进口将继续高走，但增长速度将主要的发展趋势，国内投资和宏观调控力和影响休息。 2006-2007年：在2006年，中国的对外贸易达1.76万亿美元，同比增长23.6％，比去年同期相比，排名世界第三位。中国的进口和出口货物可能为全年达2.1万美元美元，同比增长20％，超过上年同期水平在2007.External贸易年初以来的持续快速增长，该报告说。外国机械，电子，纺织，服装和鞋类的销售录得持续增长。与主要合作伙伴，包括欧盟，美国和日本，贸易不断上升（中国社科院2008年经济社会科学系）。    资料来源：国家统计局，中国 2.4经济增长政策 经济增长是衡量年度百分之考虑到通胀因素后的国内生产总值（GDP）的价值变化。正的经济增长率意味着更多的东西比以前更多的生产，更多的劳动力需求和消费，税收和投资提供更多的财富。负增长，意味着经济正在萎缩。乔布斯更加稀缺和不支付，以及在繁荣时期。这些都是中国经济增长在1998至2003年： 1998-2000：到1999年，有1.25亿人，3,800元，人均国内生产总值，中国是在世界上经济增长最快的，也是仅次于美国的第二大的，但该国仍然较差，缺乏货币政策和财政控制管理其庞大的经济。政府会提供失败的国有企业贷款的银行，但他们没有偿还。银行系统受到威胁。 2001-2003年：中国加入WTO后，外国投资激增至创纪录的新高。强劲增长掩盖内部城市和农村地区之间的差距，沿海和内陆地区。削减关税和规则简化业务，但仍然深深困扰着巨大的国有部门和极硬改革。在2003年致命的SARS病毒的传播，对中国的经济造成严重冲击。 （姬林，2008年） 2004-2007：接下来的几年继续见证中国经济的快速崛起，强调质量和速度。在上半年的21世纪，农村仍然是扩大内需，促进经济增长的“战略堡垒”。在能源和资源方面的挑战面前，中国计划在30年的资源节约型社会奠定了基础。其他重点包括：建立国际交流的良好环境，坚持“引进的路径，走出去”，推进国际竞争与合作的基础上互惠互利，双赢的局面。此外，为了追求自主创新，发展民营企业，从事当地政府和企业，以提高中国的经济活力和可持续增长（http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/）的倡议。 2.5经济目标 中国采用的“五年计划”的经济发展战略。第九个五年计划（1996-2000年）是出色的成功，映射出的第十个五年计划（2001-2005年），为新世纪的第一个计划，这些主要目标： - 持续较快增长，结构战略性调整，提高经济增长的质量和效益，奠定了坚实的基础，2000年国内生产总值翻一番，到2010年大幅完善的社会主义市场经济，把国有企业的现代企业的基础上，从而允许更大程度上参与国际合作与竞争（刘和张，2008）。 - 国内生产总值将达到约12,500亿人民币，人均GDP9400元2005年（按2000年价格计算，假设全年经济增长7％左右）。 - 优化和产业结构升级，增强中国的竞争优势。到2005年，小学，中学和第三产业的附加值将占分别为13％，51％和36％，国内生产总值，从业人员44％，23％和33％，分别劳动力。进一步改善基础设施，增加城市化和实现有效控制的条件下区域间的发展差距拉大。 这些目标已经提前实现。目前，政府正在实施第十一个五年计划（2006-2010年）。 第Ⅲ章概述中国经济 继在2003年10月举行的中国共产党的十一届三中全会，中国的立法者亮相国家宪法的若干建议修订。其中最显著的是私有产权提供保护的建议。议员们还表示，有将是一个新的重点放在政府整体经济政策的某些方面，包括努力降低失业率（现在在8-10％的范围内，市区），以平衡城市和农村地区之间的收入分配，并保持经济增长的同时保护环境和提高社会公平。全国人大开会时批准修订2004年3月（金融稳定分析小组，2007）。 五中全会于2005年10月批准了第十一个五年经济计划（2006-2010年）旨在通过更均衡的财富分配在建设“和谐社会”，改善教育，医疗和社会保障。 2006年3月，全国人大批准的第十一个五年计划。该计划要求相对保守的国内生产总值增长45％和减少20％的能源强度（单位国内生产总值能源消耗）2010.China的经济增长在1990-2004年期间，每年平均增长率为10％，在世界上最高的增长速度。在2003年，中国的国内生产总值同比增长10.0％，10.1％，在2004年，甚至更快2005年的10.4％，尽管由政府试图给经济降温。中国的贸易总额在2006年超过17600亿美元，使中国成为世界第三大贸易国，仅次于美国和德国。这样的高增长是必要的，如果中国要产生15万个就业岗位，每年需要 - 规模大致厄瓜多尔或柬埔寨 - 采用新的进入就业市场。 （周，2008年） 4.1通货膨胀 通货膨胀是衡量生活在该国认为有必要的货物的价格作为年度百分比变化。具体包括在这个“市场篮子”商品，只有很少改变，所以这项措施反映了该国货币的购买力的波动。资料来源：国际货币基金组织（IMF）。生产者反过来可能会提高他们的销售价格，以弥补这些增加，生产规模背来检查他们的成本（裁员），或失败的投资在今后的生产中。在2007-2008年的冬天，通胀跑了约7％，上一年度的基础上，在统计的8.7％上升到2008年2月，2008年3月发布。食品和燃料行业的主要问题领域，肉类和燃料冒充特殊困难。在2007年的秋天，由于炼油厂不愿生产燃料以低廉的价格由国家开发汽油和柴油燃料短缺。与燃料销售，于2007年11月，这些价格均略有增加为每加仑2.65美元，仍稍低于世界价格。价格管制在许多基本产品和服务的影响，但其中食品价格上升18.2％，按年率计算（北京大学中国国民经济核算与经济增长研究中心，2008）在2007年11月，是无效的。通胀问题已引起中国政府的最高水平。中国政府2008年1月9日在其官方网站上发表了如下声明：“中国政府周三决定进一步采取措施，稳定市场价格和增加的严重程度处罚那些犯有通过囤积或作弊哄抬价格“。人均消费量的五分之一，每天一斤猪肉是中国经济的重要组成部分。导致中国猪肉价格的急剧上升，在2007年全球范围内的价格上升，饲料与玉米乙醇产量增加。随着需求的增加，工资上涨迅速导致严重的生产成本增加互动。国家回应，为学生和城市贫困人口的猪肉价格补贴，并要求增加生产。从国家的战略猪肉储备猪肉的释放被认为是。 2008年1月，通胀率上升至7.1％，其中BBC新闻描述为1997年以来最高的通货膨胀率，由于一个月的冬季风暴。中国的通货膨胀率跃升到一个新的十年新高的8.7％，在2008年2月雪灾后，扰乱了经济和粮食短缺恶化，政府说，2008年3月11日。然而，整个夏天和秋天，通货膨胀再次下跌到2008年10月（“中国日报”，2008年）低6.6％。在过去的几年里，中国通胀的变化了。从2000年到2002年，通胀率逐年下降。这种现象的原因是复杂的，但我们可以肯定的是，我们的经济发展是不稳定的。直到2006年，我们见证了一个更稳定的经济发展，我国已经找到了新的方式来控制通胀。 下表显示了近年来中国每年的通胀率。 年份变化％ 2000 0.4 2001 -0.7 2002 -0.8 2003 1.2 2004 3.9 2005 1.8 2006 1.5 资料来源：中国国家统计局 4.2失业 失业率是衡量每年的劳动力无法找到工作的百分比。劳动力包括成年人谁想要工作。计数的是那些谁不寻求就业，或灰心足以停止寻找。资料来源：国际货币基金组织（IMF）。经济是由消费支出和储蓄投资。失业工人赚不到工资，他们花一点，少储蓄。经济与高​​失业率的经济停滞。中国经济可能出现滞胀。部劳动和社会保障显示，在过去五年中，中国的城市新的就业机会，每​​年有超过9,000,000人，2007年，以达到12,040,000人，创造一个积极的就业政策以来最好水平的实施;共25,000,000状态国有和集体企业下岗职工重新就业，城镇登记失业率由今年的4.3％逐年下降，由2007年至4.0％。在现实中，中国政府一直倾向于削弱总量政策的同时，加强结构性政策。这一轮紧缩政策，可以说是选择性的“点杀”处理不同的事情不同。例如，不同的行业和企业区别对待，有选择性地。这样的控制结构的控制，但政府并没有说是否收缩或扩大总需求（周，2008）。 这种控制装置可增强宏观调控的重点，但它也包含行政手段，可能会伤害了市场经济的正常运作。 这就是为什么有些人声称，中国的市场经济运行回落，因这一轮宏观调控的结果。为了扩大总需求将扩大需求，刺激消费。在这种情况下，结构调整将无法正常工作，由于必须采取相反的政策方向。在我看来，政府应该不再采用任何行政控制手段在任何情况下。在短期内，中国经济的通胀倾向，但是，因此失业老迈，从长远来看。因此，货币政策不再进一步收紧收紧，法定存款准备金率已经达到17.5％，截至今日，因为没有足够的空间。当通胀肆虐，约20％于1994年，法定准备金率提高到13％左右。因此，进一步收紧的空间是非常有限的。 （赵，2002） 4.3政府开支 政府支出的年度价值的商品和服务，所有的政府支出花费如此大量的的国内product.Government总值的百分比，它有能力以稳定商品市场和其他提振经济的不稳定部分。同样的道理，政府是不是很灵活，它慢慢对市场信号作出反应。因此，其补救方法可能是不合时宜的，甚至是无益的。经济高度依赖政府支出可能不太能把握新兴机遇。 好了，下面的表格以及描述我们的支出增加。据我所知，昔日相比，我们的生活水平提高了多少。为了满足人民群众的需要，我国政府作出很大的努力，如加强基础设施实验。随着科技和教育在国家发展中起着很大的作用，政府对科学和技术的一部分钱。在此条件下，收入受更多或更少。显然，这有助于增加收入。 支出增加  （10 000澳门元） 项目2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年① 经常支出   工资286983 295920 325074 343365 378572   商品和服务57259 66366 77837 87397 141465   利息-----   经常转移525171 559490 712599 818346r 859539   其他支出4807 4970 5687 8033 94826 资本开支   投资236169 339416 433827 435491 351594   资本转移2651 12133 6304 8800 9941   金融交易33217 40140 13886 31037 49689   其他资本开支----- 自治机构425040 451866 543212 1002507r -  总计1571297 1770301 2118426 2734976r 1885626 注：①2007年的数字作出修订，随着越来越多的数据变得可用。 章Ⅳ建议 目前的全球金融危机通过的美国国和欧洲荡漾，中国一旦增压的经济增长已经放缓急剧，下降的2007年第二季度的12.6％到9％左右在今年第三季度，根据国家统计数据。中国如何才能生存下去？有没有一定的答案。我的建议如下：首先，我们应该采取一些宽松的货币政策，积极的财政政策和产业升级的行业标准，并在税收，信贷和外汇交易以及一些计划。其次，除了积极的财政政策，政府应该减税，以降低企业的成本，并减轻人们的财务负担，鼓励投资和消费，这两个国家的经济增长的主要动力。第三，我们需要目前市场资源的合理分配，以促进中国经济结构的升级。此外，在基础设施建设的大规模投资，根据目前的经济形势下，刺激国内需求下降和稳定投资。适当的政策控制下，在我看来，经济增长速度将仍然high.In不久的将来，国内生产总值增长率将达到10.5％。我认为我们应该加强各项宏观经济政策的组合管理，为消除经济过热的压力，并减缓本轮经济周期模式的繁荣创造条件。当谈到中国经济问题，我们可以看到壮观的贸易表现，投资高流动，高GDP增长背后存在严重的不平衡的问题。高数字的不良贷款拖累国营银行系统。低效的国有企业（国有企业）仍然是经济增长的拖累，尽管公布的努力，绝大多数国有企业改革，出售，合并，或关闭。社会和经济指标有所改善，因为改革的推出，但之间的高度发达的沿海省份和欠发达，贫穷的内陆地区日益严重的不平等是显而易见的。据世界银行估计，2007年，大约300万中国人 - 主要是在农村地区落后的内陆省份 - 仍然生活在贫困中，消费低于1美元一个day.In结论，现在是时候为我们的政府采取措施改善这些恶劣的条件下。我们伟大的国家的目标包括：生活质量显着改善，与城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民纯收入5％，每年增长;在登记的城镇失业率稳定保持在5％左右，保持价格总体稳定国际收支基本平衡，等等（新华社，2008），但在现实中，我们不得不面对这些问题，并提高他们的斗争方式。当我们谈论失业问题，我们可以马上皱眉头。我想告诉我们，还有很多我们这样做，而不是抱怨。我们需要知识来武装我们，等于做好。至于失业率，行政控制可用于仅作为权宜之计的一种手段，而不是一个长期的解决方案，因为它有副作用，对资源分配和市场效率。这种结构控制是一种手段，时不管三七二十一采用由政府控制，它处于亏损状态，总需求膨胀或收缩的感觉。如果政策制定者断言，总需求超过供应，他们将重点放在削减总需求。我有这个想法，结构性通胀调整使得缺乏意义和未来的政策方向将全面收紧。这也是一个政策取向，值得进一步观察。当然，它也有可能是政策制定者保持失业归咎于经济衰退。 另一个问题是通货膨胀，我有我自己对这个话题点。这种温和的通胀反映了劳动生产率的提高价格调整，而不是在市场上供不应求的一切。我们可以预见的是价格不断上涨的期间长。中国支持多项因素，需要保持一个长期温和的价格上涨，通过结构的一个重要的过渡时期。有很多因素支持中国保持长期的价格适中的增加的结构下，一个关键的过渡期。高通胀水平反映复杂多变的经济环境中，货币不持有其长期价值。工人要求更高的工资来弥补成本上升，都不愿意保存。因此，我们必须想出一个主意抵御通胀。 另外，仔细一看，当我们采取的财政政策，我们仍然可以找到很多缺点。此外，政府已经投入了大量资金，并通过国有企业的优待政策，所以可以拉自己的红色。在去年下半年，与两年前同期相比，国有企业利润同比增长4.4倍。虽然政府在重大项目上的支出增加，其在社会福利方面的支出同比增长1.95倍，在上半年。公安，科技，教育和农业技术的政府支出也有所增加。大家都可以看到这些投资无疑将创造有利条件，为国有企业改革，经济结构调整和完善的市场体系。中国继续它在2000年的路径。保持积极的财政政策在下半年。它遵循的方向，由国务院在适当的时间，以提高项目建设资金和发行国债。增加政府已经投入了大量资金，并通过国有企业的优待政策，所以可以拉自己的红色出售债券募集资金使用​​情况的监督和管理。在去年下半年，与两年前同期相比，国有企业利润同比增长4.4倍。虽然政府在重大项目上的支出增加，其在社会福利方面的支出同比增长1.95倍，在上半年。在我看来，应增加政府支出，公安，科技，教育和农业技术。这些投资将无疑创造了有利条件，为国有企业改革，经济结构调整和完善市场体系。中国继续它在2000年的路径。我觉得应该保持积极的财政政策在下半年仍然按照设定的方向在适当的时间，以提高项目建设资金由国务院和发行国债。因此，本公司募集资金使用​​的监督和管理，从销售债券。 第五章结论 这些都是中国经济的具体情况。从这份文件中，可以掌握中国经济的总体思路。然而，中国仍然是一个中等偏下收入国家，数以百万计的人生活在每天不到1美元。减少贫困仍然是一项艰巨的挑战，并提高福利 数以百万计略高于贫困生活。持续增长，这将是至关重要的，不应对环境的恶化，越来越多的不平等，资源紧张的情况下是不可能的。需要加以改进，以技术和实践 国际标准。多边发展援助能够继续发挥有益的作用，在应对这些挑战，通过伙伴关系与PRC.The政府的第十一个五年计划（FYP）2006-2010年的目标，是建设和谐小康（小康社会） 。这个目标已经由党的十七大的肯定。为了实现这一目标，政府将解决其发展的挑战，通过一个平衡的战略，旨在构建和谐社会和社会主义市场经济，节能和环保。 “十一五”规划设定了定性和定量目标的各种措施。在满足这些目标，市场将发挥重要的作用，与政府提供有利的环境。设想在公共卫生，义务教育，社会安全网，以及项目涉及扶贫，政府更直接的作用。然而，中国有一个光明的前景仍然获得了很长的路要走。 附录 经济指标2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年 国内生产总值（十亿美元）1,640 1,931 2,243 2,644 3,250 国内生产总值增长（％）10.0％10％10.4％10.7％11.4％ 通胀率（％）-0.8％1.2％4.1％1.8％1.5％ 失业率（％）10.1％9.8％9.0％4.2％4.0％ 外汇 黄金储备（十亿美元） - 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